Why Democrats Could Take Back the House in 2012

Alan I. Abramowitz: “It is far too early to make any specific forecast of the outcome of the 2012 House elections. What we can say, at this point, is that if Barack Obama wins a decisive victory over his Republican challenger in the presidential election, Democrats have a realistic chance of regaining control of the House. That is because even after redistricting Republicans will be defending a large number of seats in districts that were carried by President Obama in 2008, the 2012 electorate is likely to look much more like the 2008 electorate than like the 2010 electorate and straight-ticket voting is now much more prevalent than it was 30 or 40 years ago.”