Jonathan Chait: “Robert Christian points out that one clue to the GOP’s failure in the New York special election can be found in the Pew political typology. The key group Corwin lost ground with seems to corresponds to what Pew calls “Disaffecteds.” Who are “Disaffecteds”? Pew explains:

The most financially stressed of the eight typology groups, Disaffecteds are very critical of both business and government. They are sympathetic to the poor and supportive of social welfare programs…Religious and socially conservative…

So here you have a key part of the Republican base, whose swing toward the GOP in 2010 was a crucial factor in the party’s success. And this group opposes cutting Medicare more staunchly than any other group. The Ryan plan seems almost designed to blow up the Republican coalition.”